Mubarak Reaches Sell-by Date

Being an aging dictator is a high risk proposition. Just look at the numbers.

Augusto Pinochet ruled  Chile 17 years till he reached age 74.

Ferdinand Marcos ruled the Phillipines 21 years till age 69.

Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi ruled Iran 26 years till age 60.

Francisco Franco ruled Spain 36 years till age 83. (And he’s still dead)

If you look at Wikipedia’s list of longest ruling non-hereditary leaders you’ll find  that Fidel Castro tops the list at 49 years, followed by Chiang Kai-shek and Kim Il Sung at 47 and 45 years, respectively. After that the list quickly drops into the 30s, with most presidents-for-life not making it past 35.

Hosni Mubarak has ruled Egypt for 30 years and he is 83. That by itself puts the odds against him.

Damn. You get to your golden years, the Swiss bank accounts are brimming, you’re ready to hand the kleptocracy over to Junior, and a bunch of tweeting, instant-messaging, street-protesting Tunisians goes and sets a bad example for your own poverty-stricken serfs.

In case you have been living in a cave or have been on your honeymoon, the streets of Cairo are full of protesters, Mubarak’s national party headquarters building has been set on fire, police have disappeared from most of Cairo, and Mubarak has just fired his entire cabinet and appointed a vice president for the first time in 30 years. The Obama administration is making non-committal noises about peace, love, and reform, which must strike Mubarak as a betrayal. There is even a rumor going around that the U.S. government has been aware for a year that things were about to go pear-shaped for our ally.

The capper is that the Egyptian army seems to be slipping from Mubarak’s grasp. The protesters have been cheering the army as their comrades, and the army, in turn, hasn’t been shooting at the protesters. I found a telling piece of raw footage online that shows a three-way confrontation between police, protesters and a trio of armored personnel carriers. When the police fire their shotguns over the heads of the protesters the armored vehicles form a cordon between the two groups. Soldiers then gently herd the protesters behind the vehicles, apparently to protect them. There was a report of a tank officer telling the crowds that the army’s job is to protect Egypt and Egyptians, not a particular administration. That kind of behavior should put a twist in Mubarak’s guts. Mubarak and most of his ministers came from the army, and have been maintained by army support for the past three decades.

The question now is whether the upper level military officers are both able and willing to turn this around. I’m doubtful on both counts. The rank and file seem too chummy with the protestors. I’ll bet that Mubarak gets the word from the brass inside of a week, two at most. The military leadership will then say “We meant to do that all along” and see what they can salvage with a new government.

This is significant for several reasons. With Mubarak gone, Egypt is in play in terms of both government and allies. Will it be secular or theocratic? Probably secular, because that is what Egyptians are used to, but it’s not 100% certain. What is certain is that Egypt’s position towards Israel and the U.S. will shift. The average person in the streets of Cairo does not love Israel, despite long standing policy. As usual, the U.S. supported the cooperative dictator to the end. This will not endear us to the new government. And then there is the fact of an incident becoming a trend. First Tunisia, then Egypt, then perhaps Yemen? Ali Abdullah Saleh is 65 and has ruled Yemen for 32 years. He is seeing some Tunisia-inspired protests as well. King Abdullah of Jordan is responding to protests (inspired by Egypt) by subsidizing basic commodities and giving pay raises to the army and civil servants. There again, Israel must be getting nervous. Jordan borders Israel and is the only country in the region aside from Egypt that has normal relations with them. Algeria’s military-appointed government is seeing unrest, and if that succeeds we’ll be seeing another Islamic state.

Tunisia has done it and Egypt is probable. Yemeni’s are dirt poor and fed up, without much to lose at the moment. The protests in Jordan and Algeria are small so far, but when Mubarak goes they could get inspired. At the very least we are going to see some frantic appeasement by nervous Middle Eastern governments. I’ll be interested to see how far this will go.