Guess who?

“She's a nutcase!”

Given the generally political nature of this blog, and my general take on politics, you probably already know who she is.

As I walked into the farmer's market this morning I heard this phrase from a cheerful, laughing woman at the “Obama for President” table. I knew exactly who she was referring to.

“She” is Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska, Republican vice-presidential candidate, picked out of right field by John McCain, apparently on impulse. According to some insiders, he picked her in a spiteful reaction to pressure from Karl Rove to choose Mitt Romney.

It makes a statement about this choice that I instantly knew exactly who the woman at the farmer's market was talking about, and that most of the people reading this essay had a good idea as well, even without any contextual clues.

And yes, without resorting to the above mentioned pejorative, I can say that a number of her views are outside the mainstream. For example, Palin opposes abortion even in cases of rape or incest, a view that only garners support in the 15% range. She has some standard hard right views on global warming (it isn't) and endangered wildlife (they aren't). So far, a commonplace Christian paleo-conservative. She also has a disorderly pile of skeletons tumbling out of her political closet, including a politically motivated firing (troopergate), some expense account hijinks, and a hand in glove relationship with the oil industry. Again, no big surprise. Picking a politician from Alaska is the cold weather equivalent of picking one from New Orleans – there is no escaping at least a whiff of corruption.

The thing that makes me sit up and take notice, the thing that makes me shudder at the thought, the thing that makes me look for the Obama donation webpage, however, is her membership in a church that espouses Dominion Christianity.

As with any movement, Dominionism is not monolithic. It ranges from people who believe that Christians should take an active and aggressive role in politics to Christian Reconstructionists, who believe in Constitution-shredding theocracy. This extreme faction of the evangelical right is the Christian analog to Wahhabi or Taliban Islam. In Islam there is such a thing as Sharia law, that is, law based on the Koran. The Christian Reconstructionists want the United States to operate like a Christian version of Iran, Saudi Arabia, or the tribal areas of Waziristan, with Old Testament biblical teachings superseding the Constitution. Chip Berlet splits the hairs nicely on this subject over at the Huffington Post.

Where does Sarah Palin stand on this continuum? There are indicators but no clear answers. Her church for the past quarter century, the Wasilla Assembly of God, has connections with the so-called Third Wave movement, a cross-denominational movement obsessed with global “spiritual warfare” and end times theology. The general thrust of the movement is to take over governments and societies around the world in order to prompt the second coming of Christ. Palin participated in a public religious ceremony conducted by Wasilla Assembly of God pastor Ed Kalnins in June, so her connection is still vital. Palin is apparently a believer in the end times theology of her church, and believes that the invasion of Iraq is a mission from God.

Actually, wherever she is on the Dominionism spectrum, the implications are similar. The far end of the Dominionism spectrum trashes the Constitution and takes us directly back to the Dark Ages. The near end puts ultra-conservative Christians in public office and uses the skeleton of the Constitution, as interpreted by ultra-conservative Christians, to take us by a slightly more circuitous route back to the Dark Ages. No matter which interpretation Palin favors, it would make her oath of office problematic. For her, swearing to uphold the Constitution would be at worst a direct lie and at best, self deception.

A major question of this presidential race is whether the mass of voters will come to recognize her religious and social extremism, or swallow the image of the ordinary working mom promoted by her campaign. The Obama campaign needs to start making pointed statements about her extremism now, and insistently till November.

It's not that there are too many fools in the world...

...It's just that lightning is improperly distributed. (Mark Twain)

Apparently my computer was a fool, because a powerful lightning strike fried its motherboard like Cajun blackened catfish a few weeks ago. Hence the recent silence from the Minor Heretic. It is back now, with a new motherboard, under warranty.

I'll be back in the figurative saddle in another week or so. I am presently deeply engaged in my profession, installing solar equipment at a frantic rate. This is nothing special. Everyone I know in the solar industry is flat out busy. The exponential expansion of renewable energy is a bright spot in an otherwise bleak world.

It's August: Turn off the computer. Go outside. Have an ice cream cone. Walk it off.

More later.

Notes From the Oil Production Downslope: Hit Me Baby, One More Time

I teach a class at the Yestermorrow Design/Build School in Warren, VT. This allows me to meet interesting people from all over the country and hear their stories. The latest installment in the ongoing decline in oil production comes from a student whose day job is doing bodywork on luxury vehicles in the New York borough of Queens.

On the mortgage crisis front, banks are now receiving “jingle mail.” This is when a homeowner realizes that his or her mortgage is a larger number than the declining value of the home covered by the mortgage. Why keep paying a $500,000 mortgage on a $450,000 (and falling) house? The homeowner locks the door,mails the keys to the bank, and walks away. In some cases, the frustrated homeowner vandalizes the house before departure.

On the oil crisis front, gas-guzzlers are taking hits. Literally. My student reports that he is seeing SUVs vandalized by their owners. Unable to keep forking over $100 at the gas station and unable to sell their dinosaurs for the balance on their car loans, people are going for the insurance money.

The nighttime application of a sledgehammer to the bodywork, windows, and interior generally does the job, although some augment this with spray paint. This led to an embarrassing bust in one case, where the owner neglected to remove his keys from the ignition, covering them with a telltale coat of paint.

In other cases, owners of these non-salable money pits have gotten into fender benders and then augmented the legitimate damage with blunt instruments. Some people ask the body shop if they can declare the vehicle “totaled.” The body shop people have to repeatedly explain that this question is answered by the insurance company claims adjuster.

This is the first scattering of gravel that presages the landslide. Right now the phenomenon is limited to people who bought far too much car for their gas budget. The line of unaffordability will sweep down from the wheeled Zeppelins to less gargantuan vehicles and more prosperous owners. Next will come the abandonment of those too-far-to-commute outer suburban houses. The inexorable trend will be towards lower fuel use, which means lower vehicle mass per passenger and less mobility in general. The battered SUVs of Queens are harbingers of the new reality.

Admiral Canute lectures the Iranian tide

In the escalating war of words between Iran and the U.S., the Iranian government threatened to shut down oil shipments through the Persian Gulf if attacked. Iranian General Mohammed Ali Jafari said, “It is natural that when a country is attacked it uses all of its capabilities against the enemy, and definitely our control of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz would be one of our actions.”

Since 40% of the world oil supply comes through the Gulf, this is no small thing. We would no longer be complaining about $4 gasoline because there wouldn’t be any to buy.

In response, Vice-Admiral Kevin Cosgriff, commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet said, “They will not close it... They will not be allowed to close it.”

There are two problems with Vice-Admiral Cosgriff’s statement, and they are named Kowsar and Noor.

The Kowsar and Noor are Iranian knockoffs of Chinese tactical cruise missiles. The Kowsar has a relatively short range and a small explosive payload, but Hezbollah managed to cripple an Israeli warship with one during their recent dustup in Lebanon. The Noor is a bigger issue. Based on the Chinese C-802 anti-ship cruise missile, it has a range of 200 kilometers, enough to cut off the Straight of Hormuz and a good portion of the Gulf of Oman. Iran reportedly bought 60 of the C-802s from China and deployed them at Qeshm, in the narrows of the Straight. Then it started making its own.

These Noor/C-802 missiles are nearly impossible to stop. They travel close to Mach 1 at less than 30 feet off the water, dropping to half that altitude as they close on the target. The missile starts swerving back and forth on the final approach to dodge anti-missile fire, and then dives for the ship’s waterline. The guidance package is difficult to jam with electronic countermeasures. They are supposed to have a 98% hit ratio.

What this means is that if the Iranians get even one missile launched, somebody loses a tanker. If the U.S. fleet is within 200 km of the Iranian coast (or an Iranian ship or helicopter), we end up with a crippled aircraft carrier, or perhaps the first sinking of a major ship in modern U.S. naval history. Of course, in the event of a conflict our forces would be trying to find and destroy all these missiles. The problem is that we can never know if we have gotten them all. Just one would ruin your day. If the Iranians declared a missile barrier across the Straight of Hormuz, no tanker company would test it.

A shooting war between Iran and the U.S. would be the height of idiocy for both sides. The U.S. would face increased attacks in Iraq from angry Shia militias and skyrocketing oil prices, as well as the further overstretching of a beyond overstretched military (and budget). The Iranians would face total international isolation if they shut off the Persian Gulf. For them it would be the nuclear option.

Nevertheless, as both countries rattle sabers and trade angry talk, it is good to remember this: They could do what they say they might do, and we couldn’t stop them.

A quotation for Independence Day

From The Great Thoughts, edited by George Seldes:

“There is nothing more common than to confound the terms of the American Revolution with those of the late American war. The American war is over but this is far from being the case with the American Revolution. On the contrary, nothing but the first act of the great drama is closed.”

Benjamin Rush (1747-1833), Physician, Signer of the Declaration of Independence

(Address, “To the People of the United States,” 1789)