The Crushing Handshake

I just read a piece in the Rutland Herald about Joe Trippi coming to work for Doug Racine in his gubernatorial bid. Trippi gained fame as the new media genius behind Howard Dean’s insurgent run for the Democratic presidential nomination. Dean did better than expected, raising a lot of money outside the normal DNC channels.

Some have noted that Racine has a nice guy image and might lack the teeth for hardball campaigning. This has been a failing of most recent Democratic contenders for the Vermont governor’s office. In contrast, Peter Clavelle, former mayor of Burlington, came across as combative and sour. I watched Clavelle in a debate against Jim Douglas at the Renewable Energy Vermont conference. Clavelle scored all the points on a factual basis, but Douglas had on his usual Teflon suit and engaged in genially vague deflection. Talking with a few other renewable energy professionals afterward, we agreed that Clavelle would get our votes, but that the public in general would be turned off by him. Apparently they were.

The secret of success in Vermont politics is the crushing handshake. Metaphorically speaking, the two (or more) contenders walk up to each other, smile broadly, and shake hands. They hold the pose for the cameras. In reality, each is squeezing as hard as possible, attempting to reduce the other’s metacarpals to chalk dust. Neither is allowed to show the least hint of anger or pain. They just smile, a sheen of sweat on their brows, perhaps a bit of moisture in their eyes, squeezing with all their respective strength.

In practice, this means saying that your opponent is a lying ignoramus, and supports policies destined to bankrupt the state or reduce us to slavery, without seeming to be angry, accusatory, or unpleasant. Jim Douglas’ success can be attributed to just this skill. What I hear people say about him is that in person “..he’s a really nice guy!” No doubt.  His public persona is bland to the point of unflavored oatmeal, a kind of Rorschach blot in gray. I’ve never heard the man raise his voice. And yet, with this low-affect voice he has criticized his political opponents to great effect. I should say, because of this low-affect voice – it’s his secret weapon.

Which brings me back again to Trippi and Racine. As noted, Doug Racine already has a nice guy image. He needs to use it like a spiked club. An odd simile, but that’s Vermont politics. Trippi and Amy Schollenberger (Racine’s campaign manager) need to manage the content and imaging of Racine’s statements to bust Brian Dubie’s chops – in an easygoing manner. Douglas has managed to make right wing myth and the usual hortatory blather sound like common sense. Dubie will try to follow his lead. Racine should be able to start with rational policy and make it appealing. It’s all in the presentation.

It may all be useless at this point. I recently spoke with a Vermont Democratic Party insider who had serious doubts about the ability of any of the Democratic candidates to beat Dubie. In his opinion, any one of them could have beaten Dubie if there hadn’t been a primary. With a primary, however, all five have been busy jockeying with each other instead of focusing on the general election. The real money is tied up until after the primary, and meanwhile Dubie is organizing. Another factor he mentioned was that more and more people are voting early (if not often). Almost a quarter of voters are voting with absentee ballots, which can be sent in the day after the Democratic primary. A double digit percentage of the votes could be cast before the Democratic candidate could even put out a press release.

As far as the Minor Heretic is concerned, any of the five Democratic candidates would be far superior to Brian Dubie. Doug Racine, Deb Markowitz, Matt Dunne, or Peter Shumlin would be perfectly satisfactory. Susan Bartlett less so, but I wouldn’t whine. The question for me is which one has the greatest political grip strength. Who among them can latch on to Brian Dubie and make him lose his cool? The race is his to lose at this point, and we need a forced error.