The mileage diet

Periodically I get emails about gas prices. They have two flavors. One is “Don’t buy gas from ExxonMobil! That’ll teach ‘em!” The other is “Don’t buy gas on May 25th! Disrupt their supply chain!” Neither of these options would make any difference. In the first case, even if the boycott became universal, ExxonMobil would just wholesale the gasoline to other companies, which would suck it up due to their greater demand. A bunch of local ExxonMobil station operators would get screwed, but they only make a few cents on a gallon anyway. In the second case, they wouldn’t even notice the dip. There is enough flexibility in the gasoline storage and distribution system that it would just hold the precious fluid till the next day and sell it.

I have a different idea, which actually could work. Even if it weren’t universally adopted, it would be good for those who tried it. It is fairly simple: a personal mileage budget.

The average American drives about 12,000 miles per year. At our pathetic national average gas mileage of 20 mpg, that is 600 gallons of gasoline. What if we all looked at our personal average monthly mileage and cut it by 10%, 20%, or even 30%? This would mean that we would have to be more thoughtful about our driving habits, combining trips, and perhaps carpooling. Even carpooling to work one day a week with one other person cuts that portion of gasoline consumption for each of you by 10%. Let’s be optimistic and say that we could cut our driving by 20%. (I should note that the average American was driving about 50% fewer miles per year in 1970. We weren't living in caves and spearing mastodons - somehow we managed to survive on 6,000 miles per year.)

On the personal level, that would mean 120 gallons of gas you would never pump, saving you about $360 or more a year at present prices. If you drive a Prius, a little less than half that, but still cash in your pocket. At 20 pounds of carbon dioxide per gallon burned, that would reduce your greenhouse gas emissions by 2400 pounds a year. A great way to visualize this: one pound of carbon dioxide fills a six-foot diameter weather balloon. This is about two acres covered with six-foot balloons.

Americans burn about 9 million barrels of motor gasoline a day, which is about 45% of our national oil consumption. Our national oil consumption of roughly 20 million barrels a day is, in turn, about 25% of world oil consumption. 45% x 25% = 11.25% of the world’s oil production goes into our gas tanks. If we could pull off a 20% reduction in personal driving it would lower world demand by 2.25%. That would drop oil prices and would definitely drop gasoline prices. We could see $2 a gallon once more.

If we could voluntarily pull that off – one of the largest ifs I have ever postulated. Eventually the price of gasoline will shoot past $10 and we’ll all be part of the Involuntary Simplicity Movement, but for now the American lust for the road is insatiable, even at $3 a gallon. There is also the problem of Jevon’s Paradox: As a commodity becomes a smaller part of our overall expenses we use more of it. Put everyone in a 60 mpg Honda Insight, or conserve till the price of gas is $1.95, and everybody says, “Hey, this is cheap! Let’s drive to (name of distant city).”

Of course, the effect of all that conservation would be temporary. We are on the final plateau of world oil production, and as it drops off our 2.25% reduction will be swallowed up. The era of wandering around the landscape in a two-ton steel box on wheels is finite.

Still, the effects of such an effort will be positive. Participants will save money and reduce their output of greenhouse gases. At a recent presentation I made on energy depletion a man noted that carpooling had helped him meet more of his neighbors and get to know them. It would give us as a society a little extra bit of time to get our energy act together. There is also the small satisfaction of being part of something that actually could bruise the oil companies.

If you aren’t up to tracking your mileage, do what I do now: Keep your car in the driveway at least one day a week and two days if possible. I’m going to start tracking my mileage on June 1st and start with a 10% mileage reduction as a celebration of Independence Day. How about you?

Comments

[Becka]

Tracking mileage is a great idea! I have a vague sense that I have been driving less and less, but no hard & fast data. Most of my mileage is long-distance, but I don't track it except for business expenses.

I should also keep track of how many days it is between times I drive. Tom and I often don't drive for 7-10 days at a time, but we don't track it. That would be interesting - to see how long we can go, and challenge ourselves.

[Birney Summers]

Putting yourself on a personal mileage diet sounds like a very good idea for folks to save their own money.

It is amazing how well people can adapt to situations when it will keep some of their cash in their pockets.

Ain't it great to have positive side effects of a better environment and more energy independence.

Birney Summers
ENERGY BOOMER
http://energyboomer.com